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Gary D. Halbert
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Gary D. Halbert's Latest E-Letter

October 28, 2014  -  Americans Even More Pessimistic Ahead of Elections

We cover a lot of ground in today's E-Letter. We begin with the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll which found that the Republicans have risen to an 11-point lead among “likely voters.” That’s up from only a 5-point lead a week earlier. Some 52% of likely voters want a Republican-led Congress, while 41% favor Democratic control.
 
Voters’ excitement about the campaign hasn’t increased as Election Day approaches, defying the trend in recent years. The share of voters who see the country on the “wrong track” has reached the highest level ever in a midterm election year, at 65%,versus only 25% who believe the country is moving in the "right direction." With so many disillusioned voters out there, we could be in for a surprise on Election Day.
 
The same WSJ/NBC poll found support rising for the use of US ground forces to fight the Islamic State terrorists. Some 35% in the new survey said military action against the group should be limited to air strikes, with 41% saying it should include combat troops as well. A month earlier, some 40% called for airstrikes only, with only 34% saying the US should use combat troops as well as air strikes.
 
Recently, President Obama has been making some flowery speeches about how the economy is doing just great. To rebut the president's argument, I offer over 20 reasons why the economy is nowhere near as healthy as he claims. The American people know this, and it could have a big effect on the elections next Tuesday.
 
The Fed Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow. There has been talk that in light of the recent stock market meltdown, the Fed might decide to continue its QE bond buying program a little longer. I don't buy it, especially now that the stock markets have mostly recovered. I expect the FOMC will vote to end QE tomorrow.
 
On Thursday morning, we get the first look at 3Q Gross Domestic Product. The pre-report consensus for the advance GDP report is 3% (annual rate), following the 4.6% rise in the 2Q.
 
In my blog on Thursday, I will analyze the Fed's latest decision on QE and share my thoughts on the GDP report. If you haven't subscribed to my free weekly blog, CLICK HERE.
 
Finally, Debi and I went to New York City recently to visit the 911 Memorial and Museum. Let me just say that they were both incredible! I have more details at the end of today's letter.

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